Secular changes in the short-term preventive,positive, and temperature checks to population growth in Europe, 1460 to 1909     

Patrick R. Galloway 《Climatic change》1994,26(1):3-63

Annual variations in births, marriages, deaths, grain prices, and quarterly temperature series in England, France, Prussia, and Sweden are analyzed using a distributed lag model. The results provide support for the existence of the shortterm preventive, positive and temperature checks to population growth. Decreases in fertility and nuptiality are generally associated with increases in grain prices. Increases in mortality appear to be associated with high grain prices, cold winters and hot summers. Changes in these responses over time are examined within the context of economic development.The causes of a high mortality are various; but the greater number of known causes may be referred to five heads: 1) excessive cold or heat; 2) privation of food; 3) effluvial poisons generated in marshes, foul prisons, camps, cities; and epidemic diseases, such as typhus, plague, small pox, and other zymotic diseases; 4) mechanical and chemical injuries; 5) spontaneous disorders to which the structure of the human organization renders it liable. - Farr (1846, p. 164)....a foresight of the difficulties attending the rearing of a family acts as a preventive check, and the actual distresses of some of the lower classes, by which they are disabled from giving the proper food and attention to their children, acts as a positive check to the natural increase of population. - Malthus (1798, Chapter 4).The research on which this paper is based has been funded by grants R01-HD18107 and T32-HD07275 from the U.S. National Institute of Child Health and Human Development. This paper is associated with the author's Basic Patterns in Annual Variations in Fertility, Nuptiality, Mortality, and Prices in Preindustrial Europe,Population Studies 42, 2, 1988, 275-303. I thank Ronald Lee, Ulla Larsen, and Jan de Vries for helpful comments and suggestions.  相似文献   

Particulate content of savanna fire emissions   总被引：9，自引：0，他引：9  

Hélène Cachier  Catherine Liousse  Patrick Buat-Menard  Annie Gaudichet 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》1995,22(1-2):123-148

As part of the FOS-DECAFE experiment at Lamto (Ivory Coast) in January 1991, various aerosol samples were collected at ground level near prescribed fires or under local background conditions, to characterize the emissions of particulate matter from the burning of savanna vegetation. This paper deals with total aerosol (TPM) and carbon measurements. Detailed trace element and polycyclic hydrocarbon data are discussed in other papers presented in this issue.Near the fire plumes, the aerosols from biomass burning are primarily of a carbonaceous nature (C%70% of the aerosol mass) and consist predominantly of submicron particles (more than 90% in mass.) They are characterized by their organic nature (black to total carbon ratio Cb/Ct in the range 3–20%) and their high potassium content (K/Cb0.6). These aerosols undergo aging during their first minutes in the atmosphere causing slight alterations in their size distribution and chemical composition. However, they remain enriched in potassium (K/Cb=0.21) and pyrene, a polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon, such that both of these species may be used as tracers of savanna burning aerosols. We show that during this period of the year, the background atmosphere experiences severe pollution from both terrigenous sources and regional biomass burning (44% of the aerosol). Daynight variations of the background carbon concentrations suggest that fire ignition and spreading occur primarily during the day. Simultaneous TPM and CO₂ real-time measurements point to a temporal and spatial heterogeneity of the burning so that the ratio of the above background concentrations (TPM/CO₂) varies from 2 to 400 g/kg C. Smoldering processes are intense sources of particles but particulate emissions may also be important during the rapidly spreading heading fires in connection with the generation of heavy brown smoke. We propose emission factor values (EF) for aerosols from the savanna biomass burning aerosols: EF (TPM)=11.4±4.6 and 69±25 g/kg C_{dry plant} and EF(Ct)=7.4±3.4 and 56±16 g C/kg C_{dry plant} for flaming and smoldering processes respectively. In these estimates, the range of uncertainty is mostly due to the intra-fire variability. These values are significantly lower than those reported in the literature for the combustion of other types of vegetation. But due to the large amounts of vegetation biomass being burnt in African savannas, the annual flux of particulate carbon into the atmosphere is estimated to be of the order of 8 Tg C, which rivals particulate carbon emissions from anthropogenic activities in temperate regions.  相似文献   

Dynamical evolution of NEAs: Close encounters, secular perturbations and resonances     

Patrick Michel  Christiane Froeschlé  Paolo Farinella 《Earth, Moon, and Planets》1995,71(3):151-164

We discuss the main mechanisms affecting the dynamical evolution of Near-Earth Asteroids (NEAs) by analyzing the results of three numerical integrations over 1 Myr of the NEA (4179) Toutatis. In the first integration the only perturbing planet is the Earth. So the evolution is dominated by close encounters and looks like a random walk in semimajor axis and a correlated random walk in eccentricity, keeping almost constant the perihelion distance and the Tisserand invariant. In the second integration Jupiter and Saturn are present instead of the Earth, and the 3/1 (mean motion) and v ₆ (secular) resonances substantially change the eccentricity but not the semimajor axis. The third, most realistic, integration including all the three planets together shows a complex interplay of effects, with close encounters switching the orbit between different resonant states and no approximate conservation of the Tisserand invariant. This shows that simplified 3-body or 4-body models cannot be used to predict the typical evolution patterns and time scales of NEAs, and in particular that resonances provide some fast-track dynamical routes from low-eccentricity to very eccentric, planet-crossing orbits.On leave from the Department of Mathematics, University of Pisa, Via Buonarroti 2, 56127 Pisa, Italy, thanks to the G. Colombo fellowships of the European Space Agency.  相似文献   

CONSUMER SURPLUS IN THE THEORY AND PRACTICE OF GEOGRAPHICAL ECONOMICS     

Patrick O'Sullivan 《The Professional geographer》1977,29(4):353-358

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Evidence linking coronal transients to the evolution of coronal holes     

David F. Webb  Patrick S. MciIntosh  Jerome T. Nolte  Craig V. Solodyna 《Solar physics》1978,58(2):389-396

The positions of X-ray coronal transients outside of active regions observed during Skylab were superposed on H synoptic charts and coronal hole boundaries for seven solar rotations. We confirmed a detailed spatial association between the transients and neutral lines. We found that most of the transients were related to large-scale changes in coronal hole area and tended to occur on the borders of evolving equatorial holes.Skylab Solar Workshop Post-Doctoral Appointee, 1975–1977.  相似文献   

Comparison of soil solution chemistry sampled by centrifugation, two types of suction lysimeters and zero-tension lysimeters     

Christine E. Geibe  Rolf Danielsson  Patrick A.W. van Hees  Ulla S. Lundstrm 《Applied Geochemistry》2006,21(12):2096-2111

The choice of sampling method for soil solution is of great importance. In this paper soil solution chemistry sampled by centrifugation, two types of suction lysimeters and zero-tension lysimeters have been studied with the purpose of investigating systematic differences between them. The samples were taken at 4 depths from an acidified forest soil as well as from adjacent lime and ash treated soils. A centrifugation drainage method was compared with two types of suction lysimeters (‘Rhizon’ and ‘Prenart’) and zero-tension lysimeters. About half of the 27 variables measured showed a significant difference between the sampling methods used. Typically the centrifuged samples had lower pH (4.0 vs. 4.4), Ca (21 μM vs. 30 μM) and Mg (25 μM vs. 34 μM) concentrations and higher Cl (330 μM vs. 230 μM) and DOC (4.4 mM vs. 3.2 mM) concentrations than the Rhizon lysimeters. Also the other lysimeters showed significant differences compared to the centrifuged samples for about half the number of analytes. Centrifuged samples had higher concentrations of all analytes except NO₃ and PO₄ compared to zero-tension lysimeters and also for all analytes except NO₃ and Al compared to Prenart lysimeters. Among the environmental factors considered depth showed an influence to some extent, while sampling occasion had a great significant impact on the difference between the centrifugation method and the Rhizon lysimeters. Factors like individual pits or soil treatment did not show any influence on the difference between the methods.  相似文献   

Precambrian fluvial deposits: Enigmatic palaeohydrological data from the c. 2–1.9 Ga Waterberg Group, South Africa     

Patrick G. Eriksson  Adam J. Bumby  Jacobus J. Brümer  Markus van der Neut 《Sedimentary Geology》2006,190(1-4):25-46

Precambrian fluvial systems, lacking the influence of rooted vegetation, probably were characterised by flashy surface runoff, low bank stability, broad channels with abundant bedload, and faster rates of channel migration; consequently, a braided fluvial style is generally accepted. Pre-vegetational braided river systems, active under highly variable palaeoclimatic conditions, may have been more widespread than are modern, ephemeral dry-land braided systems. Aeolian deflation of fine fluvial detritus does not appear to have been prevalent. With the onset of large cratons by the Neoarchaean–Palaeoproterozoic, very large, perennial braided river systems became typical. The c. 2.06–1.88 Ga Waterberg Group, preserved within a Main and a smaller Middelburg basin on the Kaapvaal craton, was deposited largely by alluvial/braided-fluvial and subordinate palaeo-desert environments, within fault-bounded, possibly pull-apart type depositories.

Palaeohydrological data obtained from earlier work in the Middelburg basin (Wilgerivier Formation) are compared to such data derived from the correlated Blouberg Formation, situated along the NE margin of the Main basin. Within the preserved Blouberg depository, palaeohydrological parameters estimated from clast size and cross-bed set thickness data, exhibit rational changes in their values, either in a down-palaeocurrent direction, or from inferred basin margin to palaeo-basin centre. In both the Wilgerivier and Blouberg Formations, calculated palaeoslope values (derived from two separate formulae) plot within the gap separating typical alluvial fan gradients from those which characterise rivers (cf. [Blair, T.C., McPherson, J.G., 1994. Alluvial fans and their natural distinction from rivers based on morphology, hydraulic processes, sedimentary processes, and facies assemblages. J. Sediment. Res. A64, 450–489.]). Although it may be argued that such data support possibly unique fluvial styles within the Precambrian, perhaps related to a combination of major global-scale tectono-thermal and atmospheric–palaeoclimatic events, a simpler explanation of these apparently enigmatic palaeoslope values may be pertinent. Of the two possible palaeohydrological formulae for calculating palaeoslope, one provides results close to typical fluvial gradients; the other formula relies on preserved channel-width data. We suggest that the latter will not be reliable due to problematic preservation of original channel-widths within an active braided fluvial system. We thus find no unequivocal support for a unique fluvial style for the Precambrian, beyond that generally accepted for that period and discussed briefly in the first paragraph.  相似文献   

Andrew Miall: A short overview of a lifetime''s contribution to sedimentary endeavour     

Patrick G. Eriksson  Octavian Catuneanu   《Sedimentary Geology》2006,190(1-4):7-11

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Geochemistry of silicic magmas in the Macolod Corridor, SW Luzon, Philippines: evidence of distinct, mantle-derived, crustal sources for silicic magmas     

Thomas A. Vogel  Timothy P. Flood  Lina C. Patino  Melissa S. Wilmot  Raymond Patrick R. Maximo  Carmencita B. Arpa  Carlo A. Arcilla  James A. Stimac 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2006,151(3):267-281

Silicic volcanic deposits (>65 wt% SiO₂), which occur as domes, lavas and pyroclastic deposits, are relatively abundant in the Macolod Corridor, SW Luzon, Philippines. At Makiling stratovolcano, silicic domes occur along the margins of the volcano and are chemically similar to the silicic lavas that comprise part of the volcano. Pyroclastic flows are associated with the Laguna de Bay Caldera and these are chemically distinct from the domes and lavas at Makiling stratovolcano. As a whole, samples from the Laguna de Bay Caldera contain lower concentrations of MgO and higher concentrations of Fe₂O_3(t) than the samples from domes and lavas. The Laguna de Bay samples are more enriched in incompatible trace elements. The silicic rocks from the domes, Makiling Volcano and Laguna de Bay Caldera all contain high alkalis and high K₂O/Na₂O ratios. Melting experiments of primitive basalts and andesites demonstrate that it is difficult to produce high K₂O/Na₂O silicic magmas by fractional crystallization or partial melting of a low K₂O/Na₂O source. However, recent melting experiments (Sisson et al., Contrib Mineral Petrol 148:635–661, 2005) demonstrate that extreme fractional crystallization or partial melting of K-rich basalts can produce these silicic magmas. Our model for the generation of the silicic magmas in the Macolod Corridor requires partial melting of mantle-derived, evolved, moderate to K-rich, crystallized calc-alkaline magmas that ponded and crystallized in the mid-crust. Major and trace element variations, along with oxygen isotopes and ages of the deposits, are consistent with this model. Electronic Supplementary Material Supplementary material is available for this article at  相似文献   

Peter Zavialov, Physical Oceanography of the Dying Aral Sea     

Patrick Austin 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2006,36(3):323-324

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